Investment Approach

Our approach at SA Bullion can be described as long term macro fundamentalist. This means that our perspective takes into account broad sweeps of time with a big picture view that looks at hard facts.

We don’t have investing rules. Times change, rules become redundant and circumstances present themselves in ways that are unforeseeable.

We have some guiding principles, these being:

analyze and dissect ad nauseum, with an open mind
study history and learn its great lessons
consider risks, especially the risk of being wrong
only build strong convictions when these are warranted
be strong, the crowd is usually wrong
invest looking forward with an eye on the past

Technical Analysis

We study short term technicals so as to discern short term price action. In the gold market we look at:

longs, shorts and net open commitments on the futures boards;
bullion bank trading strategies and EFPs (Exchange for Physical);
producer hedging and de-hedging
currency price action and carry trades
risk pricing including VIX, debt spreads, CD rates, high vs low quality shares
oil inventories and price action
commodities and price action

Fundamental Analysis

We study long term fundamentals to gauge the long term structure of markets. In the gold market we look at:

mine supply, reserves and cost of extraction
jewellery and industrial uptake and recycling
central bank, IMF, BIS (Bank of International Settlements) investment actions
investment demand and ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) action
US economics, inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy
Emerging market economics, inflation, risk and money supply
leading assets classes predominantly stocks, bonds, property and cash

In Summary

We are investment strategists with a particular focus on gold and money markets.